Description: This module provides an introduction to probability theory for Ecological Forecasters. Concepts taught include analysis, random numbers, probability distributions, expectation, moments; joint, marginal and conditional distributions; Bayesian thinking; and uncertainty. The module is structured around practical exercises exploring the concepts introduced in the lectures using real-world examples.
Learning outcomes:
Explain and apply key concepts of probability theory, including random variables, distributions, and expectation.
Compute and interpret joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities in ecological contexts.
Describe and apply Bayesian reasoning to represent and update uncertainty.
Use probability theory to quantify and communicate uncertainty in ecological forecasts.
Integrate probabilistic thinking into subsequent modelling and statistical analysis modules.
Module group: Foundations of Ecological Forecasting
Credits: 5 ECTS
Lecturers: Prof. Dr. Lisa Hülsmann, M.Sc. Vincent Wilkens